In order to make appropriate plans for the future we must assume that some things will change. This Community Plan is based on a number of assumptions that have been made about our district over the next ten years. The key assumptions are:
Population growth
The resident population of the Opotiki District will increase from 9,200 to reach 9,900 by 2019 (7.7%). This is based on the Statistics NZ "high" projections for the district and takes into account 'strategic projects' identified in this Community Plan.
There will be different growth rates for the resident population in different parts of the District. The following are the projected ten year growth rates for each Ward within the district:
|
Waioeka-Waiotahi |
274 people |
8% pa |
|
Opotiki |
267 people |
6% pa |
|
Coast |
166 people |
10% pa |
Household growth
The total number of existing households is estimated to be 4,233, of which occupied and unoccupied (e.g. holiday homes) comprise 79% and 21% respectively. The total number of households is expected to increase by 17% to reach 4,945 households by 2019. The proportion of unoccupied houses is expected to increase to 25%. This will see a seasonal demand placed on infrastructure that must be met and does not contribute as much to building community spirit as would a permanent resident base.
Rating Unit Growth
The number of rating units in the district will continue to increase by 1% per annum (based on Council's Strategy).
Visitor Growth
Growth in the Visitor Information Centre visits is expected to increase by 5% to 11 550 visitors per year.
Harbour Development
The development of the Opotiki Harbour entrance has not been included in the Prospective Financial Statements as prospective costs funding sources are uncertain at this time and therefore fail to meet the requirement of FRS 42. The development is based on several major assumptions including:
Infrastructure
Where the infrastructure lacks the capacity to cope with population growth, capacity will be increased.
Climate Change Impacts
New Zealand's climate will be warmer with more frequent and intense flooding, landslides, droughts and storm surges. This poses challenges to council in relation to landuse, infrastructure and economic planning. The district is likely to experience a high level of vulnerability by 2050.
Natural disasters
There will be no natural disasters requiring emergency work that cannot be funded from budgets.
Levels of Service
Changes in customer expectation and regulations will gradually increase levels of service impacting on asset requirements and operating costs.
Shared Services
Collaborative arrangements with other entities will continue to increase, particularly with other Bay of Planty local authorities, through the shared services company BoPLASS.
Renewal of resource consents
Conditions of resource consents will be increased; leading to increased costs.
New Legislation or government policy change
There will be no unexpected changes to legislation or policy that alters the nature of services provided by council.
Emissions Trading Scheme
The governments emissions trading scheme encourges industries and business to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is assumed that the scheme will continue in some form, and council has not made provision within this plan assuming adequate warning will be provided to enable response to directives from central government.
Societal Changes
There will be no unexpected changes in society that alter the nature of services provided by council. Council will focus on its core functions of providing primarily infrastructure and will rely on central government to respond to societal changes including agig population and increasing crime.